Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
