Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
